Written by Fabien Hammerer, 5REDO CTO.


Businesses routinely evaluate risks and opportunities before starting new projects. They weigh potential gains against costs to make informed decisions. Circularity initiatives—such as shifting from oil-based virgin materials to recycled or bio-sourced alternatives—are no exception. Before making these transitions, conducting a life cycle assessment helps quantify the environmental and financial trade-offs. Some circular projects, like finding partners to reuse waste, may have minimal impact on logistics. Others, however, can significantly alter manufacturing processes and introduce risks that must be managed.

The growing environmental crisis is changing the landscape of risk assessment. Typically, risk assessments compare new projects against a “status quo” scenario, assuming stable conditions. But climate change is already destabilizing this business-as-usual model. Extreme weather events like hurricanes, droughts, and floods are increasingly disrupting global logistics. They lead to cost volatility and resource scarcities that affect essential business inputs.

For example, in 2021, severe flooding in Germany and China forced temporary shutdowns of major factories. This affected supply chains for chemicals, electronics, and automotive components worldwide. In the U.S., lumber prices spiked nearly 400% during the COVID-19 pandemic. This was partly due to wildfires and unpredictable weather affecting timber production.

Other climate-related risks, equally critical for business owners, include:

  • Innovation and Competitiveness: Companies that delay transitioning to circular practices risk falling behind as competitors innovate toward sustainability.
  • Regulatory and Compliance Risks: Environmental regulations are tightening, with mandates for transparency and accountability around emissions, waste, and sustainable sourcing.
  • Brand Reputation: Consumers increasingly value environmentally responsible brands. Companies slow to act risk losing customer loyalty.
  • Increased Insurance Costs: As climate risks intensify, insurance premiums for climate-vulnerable assets and operations are rising.
  • Access to Capital: Investors are prioritizing companies with strong sustainability strategies, which impacts financing opportunities.
  • Legal Risks: Lawsuits related to pollution or carbon emissions are becoming more common, exposing businesses without proactive strategies to financial and reputational damage.

As a result, the risks and rewards of a circular business model—where resources are reused, recycled, and sourced locally—should not be compared against a risk-free baseline. Instead, the comparison is now with an uncertain status quo, one increasingly vulnerable to climate-driven disruptions that are likely to escalate over time. Shifting to circular practices can help businesses stabilize costs, strengthen supply chains, appeal to eco-conscious consumers, and address the risks mentioned above—all while building resilience in an unpredictable climate.

In today’s climate, the choice is not simply whether to change, but rather which risks to prioritize: the calculated risks of integrating circularity, or the compounding risks of sticking to a traditional model that may no longer be sustainable. For business leaders, this means making strategic decisions that not only address immediate challenges but also position their companies for resilience in an unpredictable future.

As environmental disruptions continue to shape the business landscape, the risk of inaction may ultimately outweigh the uncertainties of change. Now is the time to evaluate the cost of adaptation versus the growing cost of the status quo.

The climate crisis isn’t waiting—why should you? Start your circular economy journey today with our Circularity Integration Service.

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